Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
